Undergraduates Overwhelmingly Favor Clinton in 2016 Election

Eighty-seven percent of surveyed Harvard undergraduates would vote for Democratic Party presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, according to a survey The Crimson conducted earlier this month.

By comparison, 6 percent of respondents said they would vote for Republican Party nominee Donald Trump, just greater than the 5.8 percent who said they would support Libertarian Party nominee Gary E. Johnson. Less than one percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Green Party nominee Jill Stein.

Clinton’s 87 percent support among undergraduates—including those ineligible to vote— is significantly higher than her current level of support nationwide. Latest polls generally estimate that Clinton has about 47 percent support as compared to Trump’s 42 percent, according to an average calculated by Real Clear Politics.

Despite students’ overwhelming backing of Clinton, not all of her supporters on campus said they believed she was trustworthy. Fifty-six percent of respondents who indicated they would vote for Clinton found her trustworthy. In comparison, 52 percent of survey respondents who said they would vote for Trump also said they found him trustworthy.

Thirty-two percent of College undergraduates—2,128 students out of 6,645—responded to The Crimson’s survey, which asked for student opinion on subjects ranging from the 2016 election to their general political beliefs. The survey was open from Oct. 10 to Oct. 20. The Crimson did not adjust the survey results for any possible selection bias.

About 91 percent of respondents will be eligible to vote on Election Day, while 8 percent are not U.S. citizens, and 1 percent are too young to vote. Ninety-six percent of those eligible said they planned to vote in the election, with about 29 percent of those students planning to vote in Massachusetts.

This first article in The Crimson’s two-part series leading up to the Nov. 8 election details Harvard undergraduates’ opinions on the 2016 race. The second installment, which will run later in the week, analyzes students’ general political ideologies.

Who's Got the Vote?

Two-thirds of surveyed undergraduates said they affiliate with the Democratic Party, compared to about 12 percent who identified as Republican and 19 percent who identified as independent.

  • Forty percent of those surveyed said party loyalty was “not at all important” in their voting decision. Five percent said party loyalty was “extremely important” in their decision.

In The Crimson’s 2012 survey of Harvard undergraduates and graduate students, 77 percent of respondents indicated they would vote for President Barack Obama, while 17 percent chose his Republican opponent, Mitt Romney.

In an election in which the American public holds historically-low opinions of the both major party candidates, Clinton fares comparatively well among surveyed Harvard students. A nationwide Gallup poll conducted last week gave Clinton a 43 percent overall favorability rating, while 70 percent of Harvard respondents to The Crimson’s survey view her favorably.

  • By comparison, 3.5 percent of surveyed undergraduates view Trump favorably.
  • Clinton’s running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, received a 46 percent favorability rating. Forty-two percent of respondents indicated they either had no opinion about Kaine or did not have enough information to respond.
  • Trump’s running mate, Indiana Governor Mike Pence, received an 8 percent favorability rating. Seventy percent of respondents view Pence unfavorably, while 22 percent had no opinion or did not have enough information.

Just over half of respondents indicated they were “very enthusiastic” or “extremely enthusiastic” about their support of their preferred candidate.

  • Thirty-one percent of those who indicated they would vote for Trump also reported they were “not at all enthusiastic” about their support of his candidacy; twenty-nine percent indicated they were “extremely enthusiastic” or “very enthusiastic” about their support for him.
  • For Clinton, about 11 percent of respondents who said they would vote for Clinton said they were “not at all enthusiastic” about supporting her; fifty-five percent indicated they were “extremely enthusiastic” or “very enthusiastic” about their support for her.

Surveyed Harvard undergraduates overwhelmingly favored Clinton's proposals on issues ranging from police relations to international conflicts, compared to Trump’s proposals.

  • On average, 61 percent of surveyed students found Clinton’s stance on immigration, trade, relations with police, counterterrorism, taxes, environment, and the Syrian refugees crisis to be favorable.
  • On immigration and the environment, 72 percent of respondents viewed Clinton’s stances favorably; on trade, just 41 percent of viewed her stance favorably.
  • On average, 8 percent of those surveyed said they viewed Trump’s stance on immigration, trade, relations with police, counterterrorism, taxes, environment, and the Syrian refugees crisis as favorable.



What Affects the Vote?

Unique to this year’s election is a widespread lack of trust among voters for both major party candidates.

Respondents to The Crimson’s survey were generally uncertain about whether they find the candidate for whom they intended to vote trustworthy. But a vast majority of respondents found the candidate for whom they did not intend to vote untrustworthy.

  • Fifty-six percent of respondents who indicated they would vote for Clinton found her trustworthy.
  • In comparison, 52 percent of survey respondents who said they would vote for Trump said they found him trustworthy.
  • More than 99 percent of those who indicated they would vote for Trump said they felt Clinton was not trustworthy.
  • 97 percent of Clinton supporters said they found Trump not trustworthy.

This year’s presidential candidates differ significantly in their relative amount of political experience. Clinton has been involved in politics for more than two decades, while Trump has never before held elected office.

  • Ninety percent of all respondents said Clinton’s political experience made them more likely to vote for her. Among respondents who said they would vote for Trump, 60 percent said that Clinton’s political experience made them less likely to vote for her.
  • Meanwhile, 13 percent of all respondents said Trump’s status as a political outsider made them more likely to vote for him. Seventy-five percent of those who said they would vote for Trump said that his political outsider status made them more likely to vote for him.
  • Eighty percent of respondents said Clinton’s record as a women’s rights advocate made them more likely to vote for her.
  • Nineteen percent of respondents said Trump’s experience as a businessman made them more likely to vote for him; among those who said they planned to vote for Trump, 90 percent said his experience as a businessman made them more likely to vote for him.

Both major presidential candidates have faced a number of highly public controversies during their campaigns, affecting their polling numbers both across the country and at Harvard.

Clinton’s use of a private email server while Secretary of State prompted an FBI investigation into whether her use of the server may have compromised classified emails. The FBI concluded their investigation in July, concluding that though Clinton had been “extremely careless,” they did not recommend that she face any criminal charges. Last Friday, the FBI discovered additional emails while investigating an unrelated case; The Crimson’s survey closed before this information was made public.

  • Forty-nine percent of respondents said that Clinton’s use of a private email server made them less likely to vote for her, while 46 percent said her actions made no difference.

When asked about other controversies that the Clinton campaign has faced—including her handling of the 2012 Benghazi attack and her paid speeches at Goldman Sachs—a majority of respondents said they had no opinion or that the controversies made no difference in whether they would vote for her.

  • Still, 34 percent of students said Clinton’s handling of the Benghazi attack made them less likely to vote for her, and 38 percent of students said her speeches at Goldman Sachs made them less likely to vote for her.

Trump has over the course of his campaign made demeaning comments toward Muslim and Mexican immigrants; for example, when he launched his bid for the presidency in June 2015, he said “when Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best... They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.”

  • Ninety-five percent of those surveyed said Trump’s comments on Muslim and Mexican immigrants made them less likely to vote for him.
  • Among respondents who said they would vote for Trump, 44 percent said Trump’s comments on Muslim and Mexican immigrants made them less likely to vote for him. Thirty-three percent said those comments made no difference.

In early October, The Washington Post reported on a 2005 audio recording in which Trump made sexually explicit comments about women.

  • Ninety-five percent of those surveyed said Trump’s comments in the recording made them less likely to vote for him.
  • Among those indicating they would vote for Trump, 49 percent said the comments made them less likely to vote for him.

The 2016 United States presidential election will take place next Tuesday, Nov. 8. Political polling website FiveThirtyEight currently estimates that Clinton, the first female presidential nominee from a major U.S. political party, has a 78.9 percent chance of winning the election.